Tonight, I am interested in two games. Indiana vs Orlando and Golden State vs Detroit. Looking at the results so far this season I'm not inclined to think GSW will cover the 13 point spread they are facing tonight. VORP has so far shown to be the best predictor of point spread in games, and there is a relatively small differential between these two teams in that statistic (0.5). We see a 1.2 differential in both the CHI vs PHI and MEM vs LAC games tonight. I'd expect to see greater MOV's by CHI and LAC than GSW tonight. As far as the Indiana Orlando game, this is the first time where my factors aren't all in favor of one team or another. Indiana has the advantage in VORP (0.9 vs 0.8) and SRS (0.49 vs -0.66) whereas, Orlando has the advantage in NetRtg (1.2 vs -3.6) and WS (4 vs 2.6). The spread on this game is Indiana -4. To me this spread is too large and most likely based on Indiana having home court. However, I've decided to go with Indiana to cover because SRS and VORP have shown to have a stronger correlation to win total than NetRtg and WS and this is a text of statistics rather than an attempt to be right. I should note I do not expect NetRtg and WS to be a less relevant statistic as more game data is added, but at present VORP and SRS seem to be better predictors. |
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