131 picks made so far this season. 69-62 overall ~ 52.6% 31 games picked in December so far. 20-11 overall ~ 64.5% 24 games picked this week. 16-8 overall. ~ 67% Not sure if the results are strengthening or just on an aberrational run. I did not like last night's games. I anticipated the picks going very poorly, but was pleasantly surprised with 6-4. For this test I've tried to ignore any personal feelings or gut picks. I'm using quantifiable numbers and that's it. If I was going to make any bets I wouldn't solely base of this. For example, last night I would not have picked the Twolves. 7.5 points against the Lakers should be a reasonable margin of victory, but the Twolves are not good. If I was not just picking based on the numbers I would definitely have picked the Lakers. Also, I would have probably picked Toronto over the Spurs. The way this model works, it looks at cumulative goodness. Both the Spurs and Warriors have been historically good this season so every matchup the model will predict them covering the spread. I didn't have any confidence in the Spurs going into Toronto and winning by 6. Shocker, they didn't. Alas.
If you are following along, I will try to post my picks on the predictions page every time I remember to run it. |
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