Well, they did it. The Thunder upset the 67 win San Antonio Spurs after losing game one of the series in a blowout worthy of this year's Lakers. The Spurs are now the second team ever with an SRS of 10 or above to not win a championship along with Milwaukee is 71-72. The reward for the Thunder however is a matchup with yet another 10+ SRS team. By SRS the Warriors and Spurs are the 6th and 7th best regular season teams in the history of the NBA. The Thunder are having to face both just to get to the finals! What a year. Anyway over the course of the weekend I hope to put up several posts previewing the series by looking back at some of this year's matchups. I'm looking for things that can be gleaned from how we approached those contests and compare to what has been done so far in the playoffs. Without further ado, part 1! VIDEO 1 This lineup was dubbed the Kevin Durant Vanity Project earlier this season, and yeesh. It cannot be played against the Warriors. Certainly in the playoffs the Thunder has rolled out better defensive effort, but I’m not convinced this switching defense is any more functional now than it was in this video. KD and Foye get completely confused on their coverage which allows Livingston a mostly unencumbered passing lane to Barnes. Next, you have Speights running an inverted pin down to free Barnes on a lob run. First of all, Kanter has to scream out a warning to Singler there. Kyle gets way too wrapped up in that Speights screen to believe he had any clue it was coming. Secondly, what exactly was Kanter thinking he was guarding after the screen was set? Just brutal defense with zero communication. We'll find out quickly if the Thunder still expect to be able to go small and run this lineup out there. Also, will they try to switch everything, even off ball? If so, has their communication improved enough that people don't get lost on simple action as seen in this play? VIDEO 2 This video is here, not so much to breakdown the play but to investigate the Thunder’s matchup preferences. Waiters, KD, Russ, Serge and Foye are on the floor. I anticipate this lineup will see at least some floor time in the series. The Warriors still have their starters on the bench. Serge guards Speights, Foye has Barbosa, KD starts on Livingston then switches with Russ off the ball onto Iggy. Dion guards Barnes. Not shockingly, ever matchup is pretty solid for the Thunder. The mismatch, if there is one is Livingston on Russ. As he is so wont to do, Livingston sees a smaller guard on him and immediately iso’s to try and get a short mid-range jumper. Russ is too strong to back down very close to the rim and is also very adept at poking the ball away when someone is trying to back him down. Livingston fades and Russ contests well. The warriors are very small here, but I can’t help but think the Thunder can go big against this lineup without too much in the way of negative consequences. Let’s examine the scenario where Russ would not be subbed back in yet and Adams or Kanter was in the game in his stead. I think you put Kanter/Adams on Livingston and see similarly positive results. Speights is going to spread the floor more than Livingston so you might be able to negate him with a big. If he wants to initiate the offense and attack off the dribble you either live with it a few possessions just to see the results, or allow whoever is guarding Barnes to switch onto Livingston. Dion and Foye have more than enough strength to handle Livingston’s post up efforts. VIDEO 3 This actually looks a lot like Thunder playoff defense. In this scenario Roberson has checked in for KD in the fourth quarter. The first point I’d like to make is, we will never see this lineup in a fourth quarter in the playoffs. KD in place of Foye is a possibility. So just imagine KD in Foye’s place. Foye starts on Green (see it fits), with Roberson on Klay. Russ has Curry, Serge on Bogut and Dion has Livingston. Robes and Randy switch as Klay crosses the floor to get the ball. Klay runs a side PnR away from the rim with Bogut. Serge hedges out hard to deny a quick shot, but ends up being forced to switch out. This is ok, because Bogut isn’t going to kill anyone on the post. Certainly it’s a mismatch if he got the ball in the post with Randy Foye on his back, but remember it isn’t so daunting with KD in place. In this scenario, Klay determines he has a bigger mismatch with Serge than Bogut does. Klay tries to break serge down with the dribble but is unable to create any space. Ibaka gets pretty deep into his stance and stays on the balls of his feet matching every change in direction well. Klay has been forced to pick up his dribble. Ibaka keeps an arm up on whichever side the ball is throughout the possession. The only complaint would be that he doesn’t do a great job of limiting where Klay can go, but to be fair, he most likely gets called for a foul if there is any contact in this situation. If Serge can keep up fundamentally sound defense when switched onto guards he becomes invaluable.
I always, find myself seeing the good in Roberson. On this play he is able to front Draymond the entire play, and then when the shot goes up he still keeps a solid boxout even when the rebound bounces long. If the guards and bigs can contain dribble penetration and aren’t losing shooters I’d like to see KD or Roberson permanently on Draymond. This becomes a challenge when Steph runs a PnR with Draymond because you are almost forced to switch to avoid Steph tossing up a bomb that goes in 45% of the time, but I’m convinced that limiting Draymond does more for your defense than denying Steph his 3’s. For one, Steph will throw up a shot from literally anywhere, and Draymond is an emotional guy. Playing ball denial and keeping long aggressive defenders on him full time will upset him. I think he’s maybe the most pivotal piece in their offense. Attempting to negate him and piss him off might be your best option. Just consider, that’s exactly what teams try to do to the Thunder. If they can piss off Russ, they feel they have a better chance to win. Every Thunder fan will tell you that pissing off Russ is either a massive winning strategy or a very dangerous one. The risk reward is worth it. VIDEO 4 This is my biggest fear for the series. We have seen it all playoffs that KD is getting stripped driving to the paint, frequently. The Warriors have and will continue trying to exploit this. There are too many guys on their team with quick hands to think this won’t be a key strategy. If you let him gather the ball on a drive more often than not he is going to score. You have to attack him early to have any hope in properly defending. Personally, I’d like to see KD relinquish ball handling duties and work his way around off ball screens, but history tells us that won’t happen. First of all, KD seems to hate being a spot up shooter unless it’s the Olympics or the All Star Game. Secondly, Russ will 95% of the time defer to KD. Keeping the ball out of KD’s hands will inevitably see him standing on a wing with one hand in the air and a defender draped across his back. Unfortunately, that leaves us with the prospect of KD attacking off the dribble frequently. At this point you just have to hope he can shore up his handles and hope for some referee respect. Ugh.
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