I think there is a general consensus that if the Thunder want to beat the Warriors they are going to need to dominate the glass in much the same way they did in the Spurs series. It’s a skill that isn’t available on most teams, and will require concerted effort from the Warriors to stop. On paper, it would appear they do not have the tools to defend against aggressive offensive rebounding. The Warriors love their perfected small ball approach. The Thunder beat an historically good Spurs team with their perfected version of tall ball. It’s a stark contrast in styles and will be a battle to see which team can assert their will on the other. If the Warriors can break free and start taking endless uncontested threes, no way can the Thunder continue rolling with 2 paint based bigs. If the Thunder are afforded the opportunity of a second shot every time they miss the Warriors will be forced to keep Bogut and Ezeli or even Verejao in the game much longer than they would like. So, is it possible to beat the Warriors with tall ball? Are they susceptible to offensive rebounding? The answer is firmly placed on the fence, kind of. 4 of their 9 losses in the regular season saw the opponent with 11 or more offensive rebounds. When faced with a playoff team that got 10 or more offensive rebounds their MOV was only 8.8. (This includes that absurd 50 point win they had against a ruined Memphis team. Removing that outlier drops the MOV to 7.1)
The February 27th matchup between the Warriors was a classic. Overtime and heartbreak for the Thunder, but it fits the model for ways to attack the Warriors, Kevin Durant’s 37 points notwithstanding. This game saw the Thunder pulling down 16 offensive rebounds, outscoring the Warriors in the paint by 20, leading in second chance points by 7, and winning fast break points by 3. It was the perfect storm. The bigs were able to dominate the paint and the wings were able to limit fast break opportunities while creating those opportunities for themselves. Unfortunately for the Thunder, in the best regular season game possibly of all time, Steph Curry had maybe his best game of all time. 12-16 from 3. Cut that number to 10 and it’s a Thunder victory. VIDEO 1 This play results in Adams getting a tip back opportunity. You can see immediately that after Adams screens for Durant he rolls to the rim with every intention of getting a rebound. He isn’t looking for a pass on this play at all. With Durant holding all of Bogut’s focus Steve is able to get close to the rim. Green and Bogut do a good job of pushing and pulling Adams to try and keep him from the rim. They probably force the missed tip, but there is something more important here. Adams is under the rim, with all 5 Warriors. The rest of the Thunder are either all the way to half court or making their way quickly. The Warriors love to run, they can’t even dream of it in a scenario as seen above. IF a single offensive rebounder can draw this much attention from the Warriors there won’t be any opportunities for quick counter attacks. VIDEO 2 Consider this play. The warriors aren’t necessarily playing small here, but they are wildly overmatched in the paint. The Warriors are opting to switch everything, so Russ smartly forces a switch to get Draymond off of Serge. Ibaka takes Livingston to the right side of the paint. Adams has Mo Speights on him, who despite being big, has no chance of handling Adams strength, size and athleticism. As Russ raises up for the shot on Green just look at what’s happening under the basket. The only chance the Warriors have here is a long rebound, otherwise that ball will either go in on the shot or it will be offensive rebounded. Serge ends with the easy layup. A few plays like this and GSW would need to rethink allowing Draymond to switch off of Ibaka. That, or bringing in another big in place of Livingston.
VIDEO 3 Just look at this. Verejao, Green, Thompson and Iggy are all in the paint. Despite this the Thunder pull 2 offensive rebounds resulting in 2 points. There simply isn’t enough size for the Warriors to clear space and secure that board. It looks exploitable to me especially given what happened in the Spurs series against much better interior size.
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