I've been slacking on content this season, but felt it important to get something out before the schedule gets insanely brutal for the Thunder and I lose all motivation. The Thunder are about to start a 6 game west road swing, before 1 at home and then 2 more on the road against the Cavs and Spurs. 5-4 would be a fantastic result for the rest of the month. A best case of 5-4 is about as daunting of a few weeks as you can have in the NBA.
So, let's look at some bright spots and talk about what exactly the Thunder are doing that will make them worth watching despite this monstrous month of January.
I was in college and the only NBA action I had ever followed was the Thunder so forgive me if what I'm about to say doesn't ring true, but does this current Thunder roster not remind you of the back to back championship Lakers teams from the late aughts? All the size in the world and consequently not a ton of perimeter shooting. Offense that is heavy on post ups compared to league average. A ball dominant guard with a usage over 30. It all fits. Obviously, the league has adjusted significantly in the last 7-10 years, but those teams are a model of what the Thunder has become.
I cringe at this fact though it also comforts me to some extent, but think back to what was going on back then. The Thunder were up and coming. One of those Lakers teams actually knocked the Thunder out of their first ever playoffs (God, I feel such nostalgia for that series). The Lakers were dominating the league with their twin, but really triplet towers. Bynum, Pau, and Lamar Odom was just too much size and talent for the league to handle. Combine the towers with good team passing and Kobe Bryant and it was a recipe for success. Sam Presti, saw what was happening and reacted to it by grabbing Kendrick Perkins to pair with Serge Ibaka. Near-sighted history told us he reacted hastily to a team that completely dismantled after the 09-10 season. Most considered Presti to be stuck with that overly large overly slow lineup, and blamed it for the loss in the finals to the Heatles. I, 100% was in the camp that believed Presti had backed himself into a corner and it bit us in the ass. I don't deny that we probably lost those finals thanks to Kendrick Perkins and the massive holes we started every game in, but I recognize now it was always Presti's hope to play big. Kendrick Perkins was a problem because he was simply too slow to fit the role he was needed in. Presti didn't react to that miss by changing his philosophy for the team however, and now here we are. A team with 4 bigs in the rotation and a small forward that is probably ideally suited to be a small ball 4. Last offseason, almost everyone looked at this team and had trouble fathoming what it's plan could possibly be on offense. There wasn't any 3 point shooting. How could a team in the modern NBA exist without a spread attack? Well, I can't lie. At times this year the offense has been ugly as sin, however, they are in the top half of the league in ORtg (adjusted for schedule and unadjusted) per BBR. They are top 10 in DRtg (adjusted and unadjusted). These are middle of the pack rankings, but better than I think most anyone could have guessed considering the nightmare of an offseason the team had faced. So how have they gotten to this point? Let's look. To start the season the team 100% relied on Russell Westbrooks phenomenal efforts to carry it's offense. It was a strategy that worked for them but was absurdly apparent that it could not be sustained. Over the course of this season the team's offense has evolved to a somewhat more reliable style that if nothing else might not see us witness Russell actually dying of exhaustion later this year. This evolution is a welcome sight for fans of the team, but is probably considered devolution by most NBA observers. The Thunder is relying heavily on post touches to generate offense. Enes Kanter and Steven Adams are being asked to post up and force a double team, and then determine the right play. What is this? Little league? Can this actually work in the modern NBA? Well, it kind of is...
Adams is posting up Marc Gasol. Younger bro Gasol, is probably still the unanimous choice for best defender at the center position in the league. You have to imagine the Griz consider their defense in good hands in this scenario, but that's obviously not the case.
All five Giz are in the paint. The other 4 Thunder players are at the 3 point line. Right before Adams whips his pass to Oladipo for the short corner 3, Tony Allen is under the rim and not even keeping on eye on Oladipo. If teams are going to sell out defending the post up, Steve needs to make this pass every time. Local talking heads will complain about how many 3's the Thunder shoot considering their percentages, but these are professional basketball players and a wide open 3 is better than nearly any offensive possession you could get from a half court set.
The half court post-up iso's are one addition that the Thunder have begun running with much more frequency, but the transition post-ups from Steven Adams have been astonishing in their success and frequency. Watch
There are 5 key parts to these transition post-ups. 3 are on Adams and 2 are on the Thunder's guards.
For Adams, he has to 1.) Sprint the floor and ideally beat 9 other guys to the other basket, 2.) If a defender gets back with him, he needs to seal off. The important factors to this seal is deep position in the paint, and to use his body to clear a lane for a pass that would allow for a catch and spin into a shot, and 3.) He needs to catch what usually is a fast moving off target pass. For the guards, they need to either get the defensive rebound/steal or be quick to the ball follow a defensive rebound. This is usually not a problem for the Thunder considering Westbrook is setting DRB% records this season. The second key is to have their head up and looking to make a long pass ahead if Adams gets in position. The transition post-up can only work in the first few seconds following a rebound, much longer and NBA defenses will definitely be back and in position. Watch for these factors in this perfect example from Oladipo and Adams:
So far, this analysis has been very post-up centric and will be again before this is over, but lets go back to the more expected way of scoring for bigs in the NBA. The pick and roll is such a dynamic play and terribly difficult for a defense to properly defend. The Thunder has gotten very good at not only running and converting from the main PnR but also running action alongside the PnR to further pressure the defense. Most of the time this secondary action comes from the second big on the floor.
Take this play for example. Oladipo and Roberson spread to each corner. Adams jogs up the court just ahead of Russ and loops around Russ' defender way out above the 3 line to set a pick. This action causes Russ to start the play. He immediately sprints at MCW and Adams slips to roll to the rim. MCW chooses to go underneath Adams as that's the only way to catch up with Russ. While all this is happening Domas has come up to back screen Adam's man, floppy Lopez. Sabonis is being guarded by Taj Gibson, but GIbson is forced to commit to Russ to keep there from being an open lane to the rim. Lopez tries to slide to contest Adams' roll, but is caught off guard by the back screen. The result is a sweet little alley oop.
Early in this season we were all missing these alley oops that had been so prominent in last year's playoffs. The consensus was that lane wouldn't be open for Adams this year because there was no KD to stretch the defense. Well, the lane has opened back up and it's thanks to careful coaching and great execution, in this instance the entire play rests on the back of a rookie setting a back screen at just the right moment. Its impressive stuff and credit should be given to BIlly Donovan.
Here's another example:
Again, the fear was that teams would pack the paint on PnR's against the Thunder because there would be no perimeter threat. Here is a perfect instance of a team doing exactly that, but good smart player placement secondary to the PnR and precise execution can overcome the 4 Bucks who are in the paint when Adams scores on an easy layup.
Now, let's quickly go back to some post-up looks and wrap this thing up. Everyone knows that the NBA has gone away from back to the basket offense, and all you need to confirm that fact is the way defenses react to a post-up from a center. They lose all situational awareness and honestly defensive principles seem to just go out the window. This play against the Bulls is a wonderful depiction of this phenomenon.
The Bulls TRIPLE TEAM Kanter in the paint, and on top of that Butler and Snell just chill, ballwatching. When Adams recognizes this it takes a quick cut with an easy pass to end up with the biggest man on the court going next to unnoticed through the lane for an eye opening dunk. The Bulls almost seemed surprised that Kanter could or maybe more likely, would pass out of that post-up.
I would blame this on the Bulls not being very good this year, but it happens pretty frequently.
This play is honestly mind blowing to me. When Grant dumps to Kanter at the left mid-post there is honestly no immediate threat to the defense. As Kanter gathers Jerami slowly makes his way straight towards the rim. Unfathomably, Vince Carter starts to follow Grant and then decides, "Nah, I better go double team the ball." Collison has stayed basically stationary at the FT line holding Gasol out of the paint. It's an impossible to understand decision by Vince Carter, especially when you consider that they didn't pressure close to hard enough to keep Kanter from flipping a pass over top of Vince and ZBo for a wide open dunk.
Here is one final play. It's my favorite out of all of these for its simplicity (I mean, come on. Michael Cage was able to diagnosis it in real time), but it is wickedly effective.
The play starts with Russ dumping a pass in to Kanter at the left mid post. As the pass is made Roberson begins to clear out and cross court to the right corner 3. Immediately upon recognizing the pass to Kanter, Jimmy Butler abandons Roberson and hurries to double Kanter. FIrst of all, even if its Roberson, do you really want to leave a guy wide open under the rim in favor of bringing a double to a guy 16 feet from the rim? Probably not.
What's mind boggling to me is that this was obviously a scouted and prepared defensive decision by the Bulls. You can tell this by how quickly Jimmy Butler abandons ship on Robes and how equally quickly McDermott helps down to Robes off Oladipo. It would be decently effective if Kanter wasn't willing or able to diagnose this action and make an immediate and precise pass to the now wide open Vic across the court. Taj Gibson was a second slow to rotate out to Vic off of Adams, but let's think about the consequence even if he does make it out to Oladipo quickly enough to shut down a catch and shoot. The very premise of this defense is the exact situation an offense hopes to get the defense into when in the half court, scramble mode. They are gambling that Enes will not react well to the double and putting their other 3 defenders in a position to switch and scramble to try and cover 4 guys. It's mystifying to me why that would be the game plan, but it's like I said. Modern NBA defenses certainly don't seem to understand how to maintain their principles when a big man posts up. Give credit to Billy D, Mark Bryant, and the Thunder bigs for exploiting this to pretty decent returns.
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