In last night's games my predictions went 4-2 with its failures coming in the OKC Memphis game and Dallas Philly. I'm not too upset with the failure in the Philly game. Dallas only beat Philly by 6 rather than the 8 projected by Vegas. No one in their right mind is betting on Philly this year so you throw that one out as bad luck and roll with it. The OKC Memphis game has me upset on a fan level and a personal level. I really need to start incorporating injuries into the predictions I'm making. No KD and Roberson is a recipe for disaster with this OKC team and we saw the disgusting results last night. I will try to come up with a way to accurately incorporate injuries. Today I took some time to check over the data I've gathered so far this season. If you've been following along you know I'm simply taking 4 statistics and using them against the spread. Its a purposefully rudimentary system that tries to use the least amount of factors. I'm all about simplicity when possible (see my Layman's Metric for proof). Anyway, I was looking at some of my charts and seeing how the trends have progressed this season. I noticed a few outliers and easily accounted for them with, "sports are crazy, that's why I love them." However, one in particular stood out that I couldn't handle. It was a chart of SRS vs Margin of Victory/Loss. A team with a SRS of 8.4 lost by 14. This just seemed extreme so I investigated. It turns out this was the Detroit GSW matchup. Our team with an 8.4 SRS got annihilated, but it was actually expected. They were going up against a team with a 13.9 SRS. This was all the impetus I needed to switch up my data points to be differentials. Inherently, that's what I was doing when selecting my picks, but I was not charting them this way so I wasn't giving myself an accurate representation.
The differentials are giving pretty solid results as far as their correlation to MOV. Below are the R^2 values for the different statistics.
Obviously, we are still early in the season and I do not have a complete data set. However, I am hoping that my data will start rounding itself out and giving stronger predictions. |
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